2021q1

2021 Q1

Summary of current season's economic situation analysis —2021Q1

■ International Economic Outlook

Observations of international organizations such as EIU, IMF, and the OECD reveal that the US's GDP growth rate shrank by 3.5% in 2020, which represents a drop of 5.7 percentage points over the previous year. These institutions project a maximum GDP growth rate of 5.1% for 2021. The Japanese GDP growth rate for the whole year contracted by 4.8%, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points compared to the previous year. The maximum projected GDP growth rate for 2021 is 3.1%. The Eurozone GDP growth rate dropped by 6.8% in 2020. It is expected that the GDP growth rate will not exceed a maximum of 5.0% in 2021. The preliminary estimate for China is a GDP growth rate of 2.3% for the whole year, a decrease of 3.7% over 2019. Forecasts predict a maximum GDP growth rate of 8.1% for 2021.

According to EIU, IMF, OECD and other institutions to observe the performance of economic data in the first quarter of 2021: the annual GDP growth rate of the United States was 0.4%, the annual GDP growth rate of Japan declines by 1.9%, the annual GDP growth rate of the Eurozone declines by 1.8%, and the annual GDP growth rate of China 18.3%.

2021 Global Economic Growth Forecast Compiled Chart

單位:%

 

IMF

UN

IHS Markit

OECD

EIU

WB

 

2021.04

2021.05

2021.05

2021.05

2021.05

2021.01

 

(2021.01)

(2021.01)

(2021.04)

(2021.03)

(2021.04)

(2020.06)

 

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

Global

6.0

4.4

5.4

4.1

5.7

4.5

5.8

4.4

5.2

3.9

4.0

3.8

全球

(5.5)

(4.2)

(4.7)

(3.4)

(5.3)

(4.3)

(5.6)

(4.0)

(5.1)

(3.7)

(4.2)

( - )

USA

6.4

3.5

6.2

3.2

6.7

4.7

6.9

3.6

6.0

3.7

3.5

3.3

美國

(5.1)

(2.5)

(3.4)

(2.7)

(6.2)

(4.3)

(6.5)

(4.0)

(5.5)

(3.1)

(4.0)

( - )

JAPAN

3.3

2.5

3.3

2.2

2.6

2.1

2.6

2.0

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.3

日本

(3.1)

(2.4)

(3.0)

(1.8)

(2.6)

(1.9)

(2.7)

(1.8)

(2.7)

(2.6)

(2.5)

( - )

EURO

4.4

3.8

4.2

3.9

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.0

3.6

4.0

歐元區

(4.2)

(3.6)

(5.0)

(2.6)

(3.9)

(4.0)

(3.9)

(3.8)

(4.2)

(4.0)

(4.5)

( - )

CHINA

8.4

5.6

8.2

5.8

8.3

5.8

8.5

5.8

8.5

5.2

7.9

5.2

中國大陸

(8.1)

(5.6)

(7.2)

(5.8)

(7.9)

(5.7)

(7.8)

(4.9)

(8.5)

(5.0)

(6.9)

( - )

WORLD

8.4

6.5

9.4

5.7

-

-

8.2

5.8

7.6

5.6

5.0

5.1

TRADE

(8.1)

(6.3)

(6.9)

(3.7)

()

()

()

()

(7.0)

(5.7)

(5.3)

( - )

 

Note:: ( ) advance estimate。

資料來源:

1.   IMF:World Economic Outlook(April 6th 2021)

2.   UN:World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2021(May 11th 2021)

3.   IHS Markit:Economic Outlook(May 18th 2021)

4.   OECD:OECD Economic Outlook(May 31th 2021)

5.   EIU:EIU Country Forecast World June 2021(forecast closing date:May 17th 2021)

6.   WB:Global Economic Prospects(January 5th 2021)

7.   Organized by the Department of Industrial Development of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research.

 

■ Taiwan Economic Overview

Key domestic economic indicators for the first quarter of 2021:The real economic growth rate (GDP) is 8.92%.

Key domestic economic indicators in 2020 point to a real economic growth rate (GDP) of 3.11%. The export order volume rose by 42.90% to hit the second highest of US$ 148.968 billion, an increase of US$ 44.623 billion over the previous year. The export trade value reached a new high of US$ 97.944 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.57%. The industrial production index and manufacturing industry production index climbed to 122.73 and 125.19, respectively. This represents a year-on-year rise of 12.97% and 13.97%.

Indicator

Statistical interval

Data

YoY

GDP (%)

2021Q1

8.92

Export Orders

(US$ Million)

2021Q1

1,489.68

▲42.90%

Custom Exports

(US$ Million)

2021Q1

979.44

▲24.57%

Industrial Production Index in Taiwan

2021Q1

122.73

▲12.97%

 

■ Taipei Econ Overview

As of the end of March 2021, a total of 239,918 businesses were registered in Taipei City. This number rose by 1,882 compared to the previous year, which represents a year-on-year increase of 0.79%. Firms registered in Taipei account for 14.72% of all businesses in Taiwan. The total registered capital of the Taipei City companies reaches13.2188 trillion, constituting 51.52% of the aggregate capital of all firms in Taiwan. 1,021 factories are currently registered in Taipei City, which is 30 less than last year.

The total actual number of companies and firms in Taipei City totals 239,680 had a sales volume of 2.3656 trillion in the first quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 8.89% compared to the previous year and accounts for 29.72% of the total sales volume of all Taiwanese businesses. The tertiary industry had a sales volume of 1.9192 trillion, making up 44.42% of the total sales of all tertiary businesses in Taiwan. Approved foreign investments in Taipei City amount to US$ 5.84 billion, a decrease by 32.41% over 2021Q1. This amount accounts for 47.95% of all foreign investments in Taiwan. 65 newly established foreign companies were registered in Taipei City, which is 6 less than in 2020Q1.

 

Indicator

Statistical interval

Data

YoY

Percentage of total for the whole country

Industry & Business Registration

(Number)

Mar (bottom value)

239,918

▲1,882

14.72%

Total Capital of Companies Registered

(NT$ Hundred Million))

Mar (bottom value)

132,188

▲0.76%

51.52%

Factory Registration

(Number)

Mar (bottom value)

1,021

q30

10.80%

Number of Companies and Firms

(Number)

Mar (bottom value)

239,680

p4,330

15.80%

Sales of Companies and Firms

(NT$ Hundred Million)

Jan –Mar (Cumulative value)

23,656

p8.89%

29.72%

Sales of Tertiary Industry

(NT$ Hundred Million)

Jan –Mar (Cumulative value)

19,192

p8.83%

44.42%

Foreign Direct Investment

(NT$ Hundred Million)

Jan –Mar (Cumulative value)

5.84

q32.41%

47.95%

Number of Newly Established Foreign Companies

(Number)

Jan – Dec (Cumulative value)

268

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